SOAPreliminaryASA track
SOA Exam P Pass Rates
Exam P: Probability
46.2%
March 2026 raw pass rate
−3.0 ptsvs 49.2% in January 2026
- All-time high
- 64.9%March 2020
- All-time low
- 35.3%September 2008
- Average
- 44.0%across 105 sittings
- Std. deviation
- 4.5 ptssitting to sitting
- Candidates tracked
- 245,2922007 to 2026
- Sittings
- 105all counted
Raw pass rate
Every Exam P sitting
| Sitting | Candidates | Passed | Raw rate | Effective rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 2,117 | 978 | 46.2% | 54.9% |
| January 2026 | 2,363 | 1,163 | 49.2% | 57.2% |
| November 2025 | 2,135 | 926 | 43.4% | 51.0% |
| September 2025 | 2,154 | 970 | 45.0% | 53.7% |
| July 2025 | 2,832 | 1,302 | 46.0% | 54.5% |
| May 2025 | 1,854 | 797 | 43.0% | 51.4% |
| March 2025 | 1,997 | 899 | 45.0% | 53.7% |
| January 2025 | 2,210 | 1,041 | 47.1% | 55.7% |
| November 2024 | 1,894 | 854 | 45.1% | 54.7% |
| September 2024 | 1,837 | 871 | 47.4% | 56.3% |
| July 2024 | 2,457 | 1,159 | 47.2% | 55.3% |
| May 2024 | 1,874 | 819 | 43.7% | 52.6% |
| March 2024 | 1,857 | 822 | 44.3% | 53.3% |
| January 2024 | 1,965 | 911 | 46.4% | 55.0% |
| November 2023 | 1,643 | 740 | 45.0% | 53.7% |
| September 2023 | 1,721 | 748 | 43.5% | 51.7% |
| July 2023 | 2,030 | 986 | 48.6% | 55.9% |
| May 2023 | 1,749 | 824 | 47.1% | 54.7% |
| March 2023 | 1,504 | 721 | 47.9% | 55.9% |
| January 2023 | 1,686 | 778 | 46.1% | 53.5% |
| November 2022 | 1,269 | 543 | 42.8% | 50.3% |
| September 2022 | 1,595 | 742 | 46.5% | 54.6% |
| July 2022 | 1,722 | 750 | 43.6% | 51.4% |
| May 2022 | 1,317 | 562 | 42.7% | 51.0% |
| March 2022 | 1,228 | 499 | 40.6% | 48.8% |
| January 2022 | 1,604 | 748 | 46.6% | 54.6% |
| November 2021 | 1,267 | 562 | 44.4% | 52.7% |
| September 2021 | 1,333 | 596 | 44.7% | 52.4% |
| July 2021 | 1,895 | 888 | 46.9% | 55.8% |
| May 2021 | 1,507 | 723 | 48.0% | 56.7% |
| March 2021 | 1,568 | 769 | 49.0% | 58.3% |
| January 2021 | 1,792 | 922 | 51.5% | 60.1% |
| November 2020 | 1,805 | 906 | 50.2% | 58.6% |
| September 2020 | 1,955 | 957 | 49.0% | 56.1% |
| July 2020 | 2,061 | 1,182 | 57.4% | 63.9% |
| May 2020 | 726 | 458 | 63.1% | 68.1% |
| March 2020 | 94 | 61 | 64.9% | 70.9% |
| January 2020 | 2,227 | 1,026 | 46.1% | 54.5% |
| November 2019 | 1,908 | 855 | 44.8% | 54.0% |
| September 2019 | 2,040 | 886 | 43.4% | 52.6% |
| July 2019 | 2,551 | 1,164 | 45.7% | 55.5% |
| May 2019 | 2,214 | 1,040 | 47.0% | 55.7% |
| March 2019 | 2,058 | 883 | 42.9% | 51.1% |
| January 2019 | 2,442 | 1,123 | 46.0% | 54.5% |
| November 2018 | 1,850 | 805 | 43.5% | 52.9% |
| September 2018 | 2,249 | 944 | 42.0% | 49.7% |
| July 2018 | 2,866 | 1,223 | 42.7% | 50.8% |
| May 2018 | 2,135 | 899 | 42.1% | 50.7% |
| March 2018 | 2,323 | 952 | 41.0% | 48.6% |
| January 2018 | 2,528 | 1,125 | 44.5% | 52.9% |
| November 2017 | 2,046 | 883 | 43.2% | 50.9% |
| September 2017 | 2,420 | 1,002 | 41.4% | 48.8% |
| July 2017 | 2,946 | 1,217 | 41.3% | 49.3% |
| May 2017 | 2,352 | 990 | 42.1% | 49.7% |
| March 2017 | 2,558 | 1,052 | 41.1% | 49.3% |
| January 2017 | 2,765 | 1,176 | 42.5% | 49.0% |
| November 2016 | 2,122 | 889 | 41.9% | 49.5% |
| September 2016 | 2,597 | 1,084 | 41.7% | 49.8% |
| July 2016 | 3,322 | 1,429 | 43.0% | 51.8% |
| May 2016 | 2,499 | 1,109 | 44.4% | 51.8% |
| March 2016 | 2,719 | 1,098 | 40.4% | 48.2% |
| January 2016 | 3,020 | 1,307 | 43.3% | 49.7% |
| November 2015 | 2,157 | 863 | 40.0% | 48.1% |
| September 2015 | 2,644 | 986 | 37.3% | 45.8% |
| July 2015 | 3,110 | 1,428 | 45.9% | 53.0% |
| May 2015 | 2,502 | 1,178 | 47.1% | 53.3% |
| March 2015 | 2,796 | 1,255 | 44.9% | 51.6% |
| January 2015 | 3,057 | 1,457 | 47.7% | 53.8% |
| November 2014 | 2,313 | 1,014 | 43.8% | 49.8% |
| September 2014 | 2,615 | 1,106 | 42.3% | 48.9% |
| July 2014 | 3,278 | 1,511 | 46.1% | 52.0% |
| May 2014 | 2,943 | 1,386 | 47.1% | 52.2% |
| March 2014 | 2,767 | 1,171 | 42.3% | 48.3% |
| January 2014 | 3,117 | 1,514 | 48.6% | 53.9% |
| November 2013 | 2,691 | 1,138 | 42.3% | 49.3% |
| September 2013 | 2,856 | 1,198 | 41.9% | 49.4% |
| July 2013 | 3,543 | 1,509 | 42.6% | 50.0% |
| May 2013 | 2,805 | 1,207 | 43.0% | 50.1% |
| March 2013 | 2,888 | 1,149 | 39.8% | 46.2% |
| January 2013 | 3,513 | 1,533 | 43.6% | 50.1% |
| July 2012 | 3,188 | 1,250 | 39.2% | 45.9% |
| May 2012 | 2,831 | 1,106 | 39.1% | 45.8% |
| March 2012 | 2,342 | 891 | 38.0% | 45.1% |
| January 2012 | 2,973 | 1,243 | 41.8% | 48.3% |
| November 2011 | 2,574 | 1,098 | 42.7% | 48.8% |
| September 2011 | 2,380 | 947 | 39.8% | 46.7% |
| July 2011 | 2,851 | 1,136 | 39.8% | 45.4% |
| May 2011 | 3,093 | 1,362 | 44.0% | 50.3% |
| March 2011 | 2,154 | 891 | 41.4% | 47.9% |
| January 2011 | 3,020 | 1,350 | 44.7% | 50.1% |
| November 2010 | 2,127 | 902 | 42.4% | 47.8% |
| September/October 2010 | 1,766 | 666 | 37.7% | 43.6% |
| July/August 2010 | 2,681 | 1,188 | 44.3% | 49.1% |
| May/June 2010 | 2,699 | 1,239 | 45.9% | 51.1% |
| March 2010 | 2,571 | 1,039 | 40.4% | 45.7% |
| January 2010 | 2,575 | 1,094 | 42.5% | 47.3% |
| November 2009 | 2,596 | 1,067 | 41.1% | 47.3% |
| September 2009 | 2,436 | 943 | 38.7% | 44.6% |
| July 2009 | 2,751 | 1,047 | 38.1% | 43.7% |
| May 2009 | 3,017 | 1,147 | 38.0% | 43.7% |
| March 2009 | 2,888 | 1,110 | 38.4% | 46.4% |
| September 2008 | 2,536 | 895 | 35.3% | 43.9% |
| August 2007 | 3,705 | 1,341 | 36.2% | 42.0% |
| May 2007 | 3,519 | 1,289 | 36.6% | 41.7% |
| February 2007 | 3,050 | 1,138 | 37.3% | 44.2% |
About Exam P
Exam P is the probability exam most SOA candidates sit first, testing calculus-based probability with insurance applications. It is computer-based and offered up to six times a year, which makes its pass-rate history the deepest of any SOA exam.
Data: Society of Actuaries official exam statistics, 2007 to 2026. Last updated July 5, 2026.