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SOA Exam P Pass Rates

Exam P: Probability

46.2% March 2026 raw pass rate −3.0 ptsvs 49.2% in January 2026
All-time high
64.9%March 2020
All-time low
35.3%September 2008
Average
44.0%across 105 sittings
Std. deviation
4.5 ptssitting to sitting
Candidates tracked
245,2922007 to 2026
Sittings
105all counted
Raw pass rate
30%40%50%60%70%80%2007201020132016201920222025 March 2026 · 46.2%
Raw pass rate = passed / candidates sitting. Effective rate excludes candidates whose papers the society judged too incomplete to be realistic attempts.

Every Exam P sitting

Exam P pass rate by sitting: candidates, passed, raw rate, effective rate. Newest first.
Sitting Candidates Passed Raw rate Effective rate
March 2026 2,117 978 46.2% 54.9%
January 2026 2,363 1,163 49.2% 57.2%
November 2025 2,135 926 43.4% 51.0%
September 2025 2,154 970 45.0% 53.7%
July 2025 2,832 1,302 46.0% 54.5%
May 2025 1,854 797 43.0% 51.4%
March 2025 1,997 899 45.0% 53.7%
January 2025 2,210 1,041 47.1% 55.7%
November 2024 1,894 854 45.1% 54.7%
September 2024 1,837 871 47.4% 56.3%
July 2024 2,457 1,159 47.2% 55.3%
May 2024 1,874 819 43.7% 52.6%
March 2024 1,857 822 44.3% 53.3%
January 2024 1,965 911 46.4% 55.0%
November 2023 1,643 740 45.0% 53.7%
September 2023 1,721 748 43.5% 51.7%
July 2023 2,030 986 48.6% 55.9%
May 2023 1,749 824 47.1% 54.7%
March 2023 1,504 721 47.9% 55.9%
January 2023 1,686 778 46.1% 53.5%
November 2022 1,269 543 42.8% 50.3%
September 2022 1,595 742 46.5% 54.6%
July 2022 1,722 750 43.6% 51.4%
May 2022 1,317 562 42.7% 51.0%
March 2022 1,228 499 40.6% 48.8%
January 2022 1,604 748 46.6% 54.6%
November 2021 1,267 562 44.4% 52.7%
September 2021 1,333 596 44.7% 52.4%
July 2021 1,895 888 46.9% 55.8%
May 2021 1,507 723 48.0% 56.7%
March 2021 1,568 769 49.0% 58.3%
January 2021 1,792 922 51.5% 60.1%
November 2020 1,805 906 50.2% 58.6%
September 2020 1,955 957 49.0% 56.1%
July 2020 2,061 1,182 57.4% 63.9%
May 2020 726 458 63.1% 68.1%
March 2020 94 61 64.9% 70.9%
January 2020 2,227 1,026 46.1% 54.5%
November 2019 1,908 855 44.8% 54.0%
September 2019 2,040 886 43.4% 52.6%
July 2019 2,551 1,164 45.7% 55.5%
May 2019 2,214 1,040 47.0% 55.7%
March 2019 2,058 883 42.9% 51.1%
January 2019 2,442 1,123 46.0% 54.5%
November 2018 1,850 805 43.5% 52.9%
September 2018 2,249 944 42.0% 49.7%
July 2018 2,866 1,223 42.7% 50.8%
May 2018 2,135 899 42.1% 50.7%
March 2018 2,323 952 41.0% 48.6%
January 2018 2,528 1,125 44.5% 52.9%
November 2017 2,046 883 43.2% 50.9%
September 2017 2,420 1,002 41.4% 48.8%
July 2017 2,946 1,217 41.3% 49.3%
May 2017 2,352 990 42.1% 49.7%
March 2017 2,558 1,052 41.1% 49.3%
January 2017 2,765 1,176 42.5% 49.0%
November 2016 2,122 889 41.9% 49.5%
September 2016 2,597 1,084 41.7% 49.8%
July 2016 3,322 1,429 43.0% 51.8%
May 2016 2,499 1,109 44.4% 51.8%
March 2016 2,719 1,098 40.4% 48.2%
January 2016 3,020 1,307 43.3% 49.7%
November 2015 2,157 863 40.0% 48.1%
September 2015 2,644 986 37.3% 45.8%
July 2015 3,110 1,428 45.9% 53.0%
May 2015 2,502 1,178 47.1% 53.3%
March 2015 2,796 1,255 44.9% 51.6%
January 2015 3,057 1,457 47.7% 53.8%
November 2014 2,313 1,014 43.8% 49.8%
September 2014 2,615 1,106 42.3% 48.9%
July 2014 3,278 1,511 46.1% 52.0%
May 2014 2,943 1,386 47.1% 52.2%
March 2014 2,767 1,171 42.3% 48.3%
January 2014 3,117 1,514 48.6% 53.9%
November 2013 2,691 1,138 42.3% 49.3%
September 2013 2,856 1,198 41.9% 49.4%
July 2013 3,543 1,509 42.6% 50.0%
May 2013 2,805 1,207 43.0% 50.1%
March 2013 2,888 1,149 39.8% 46.2%
January 2013 3,513 1,533 43.6% 50.1%
July 2012 3,188 1,250 39.2% 45.9%
May 2012 2,831 1,106 39.1% 45.8%
March 2012 2,342 891 38.0% 45.1%
January 2012 2,973 1,243 41.8% 48.3%
November 2011 2,574 1,098 42.7% 48.8%
September 2011 2,380 947 39.8% 46.7%
July 2011 2,851 1,136 39.8% 45.4%
May 2011 3,093 1,362 44.0% 50.3%
March 2011 2,154 891 41.4% 47.9%
January 2011 3,020 1,350 44.7% 50.1%
November 2010 2,127 902 42.4% 47.8%
September/October 2010 1,766 666 37.7% 43.6%
July/August 2010 2,681 1,188 44.3% 49.1%
May/June 2010 2,699 1,239 45.9% 51.1%
March 2010 2,571 1,039 40.4% 45.7%
January 2010 2,575 1,094 42.5% 47.3%
November 2009 2,596 1,067 41.1% 47.3%
September 2009 2,436 943 38.7% 44.6%
July 2009 2,751 1,047 38.1% 43.7%
May 2009 3,017 1,147 38.0% 43.7%
March 2009 2,888 1,110 38.4% 46.4%
September 2008 2,536 895 35.3% 43.9%
August 2007 3,705 1,341 36.2% 42.0%
May 2007 3,519 1,289 36.6% 41.7%
February 2007 3,050 1,138 37.3% 44.2%

About Exam P

Exam P is the probability exam most SOA candidates sit first, testing calculus-based probability with insurance applications. It is computer-based and offered up to six times a year, which makes its pass-rate history the deepest of any SOA exam.

Data: Society of Actuaries official exam statistics, 2007 to 2026. Last updated July 5, 2026.

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