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Nine Obesity Drugs Near Launch Could Break the GLP-1 Duopoly by 2027

Nine obesity drugs targeting FDA approval by 2027 could break the GLP-1 duopoly. Actuarial framework for bifurcated trend scenarios as Morningstar projects 28% price declines.

By Beth · 14 min read · Jun 10

Health

CMS Proposes Rate Limits on $145B in Medicaid State-Directed Payments

CMS-2449-P proposes payment rate limits on $144.6B in Medicaid state-directed payments, forcing certifying actuaries to segregate SDP pass-throughs from risk-based capitation under 42 CFR 438.4.

By Beth · 9 min · Jun 10

Health Pricing

Federal PBM Reform Mandates Full Rebate Passthrough by 2029

The CAA 2026 mandates 100% PBM rebate passthrough with $10,000/day ERISA penalties by 2029. How federal enforcement and NAIC examination reshape health plan drug cost assumptions.

By Beth · 14 min · Jun 10

Medicare Advantage

CY2027 MA Bids Lock In as Actuaries Navigate Tighter Margins

MA plan actuaries locked CY2027 bids by June 1 against a 2.48% rate increase, V28 model deferral, Part D redesign, and Star Ratings shifts. Analysis of bid trade-offs shaping 2027 benefits.

By Beth · 14 min · Jun 9

Health

AM Best and Moody's Hold Health Insurers at Negative Outlook for 2026

AM Best and Moody's both maintain negative health insurance outlooks for 2026. Cross-segment analysis of MA, Medicaid, commercial, and ACA margin recovery timelines.

By Beth · 12 min · Jun 8

On the Wire Jun 11

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ACA Tracker 2027 individual-market rate filings to date

Rate Review →

Filings to date 31 states have posted 2027 individual-market filings. Weighted trend is +9.4%, with GLP-1 and inpatient unit-cost the two recurring drivers.

Avg. Filed Trend

+9.4%

0.3pt vs 2026

31 states filed

Median MLR

85.2%

1.4pt vs PY

PY = 2024

GLP-1 Adj.

+1.8%

0.6pt vs 2026

Filing avg