From Our Desk Original analysis · Health
All Health insights →2026 MA Enrollment Surprises: SNP Growth Rewrites 2027 Bid Math
Medicare Advantage grew 1.1 million enrollees to 51.6% penetration in 2026, reversing CMS's decline forecast, with 85% of growth landing in SNPs, a shift 2027 reserve tracking and 2028 bids need to price.
By Beth · 11 min read · Jul 14
Aon's 50M-Person GLP-1 Dataset Prices the Employer Coverage Gap
Aon's 50-million-life dataset shows GLP-1-treated diabetics had medical cost growth 6 points lower at 30 months, yet IFEBP's 2026 survey holds employer coverage flat at 36%, a gap actuaries can now price.
By Beth · 13 min · Jul 13
How Flat Stop-Loss Deductibles Turn 12% Claims Trend Into 30% Carrier Exposure Growth
A fixed $200,000 stop-loss deductible turns 12% medical trend into a leveraged carrier-exposure jump near 20%. Segal's Q3 2026 data puts flat-deductible premium increases at 12.7%, versus 11.5% where deductibles rose.
By Beth · 9 min · Jul 13
HHS Finalizes OBBBA Marketplace Rules: Six Actuarial Repricing Triggers for 2027
HHS's OBBBA final rule ends ACA auto-reenrollment, shortens open enrollment five weeks, and narrows special enrollment periods for 2027-2028, filtering healthier enrollees from a pool already 4 points sicker after 2026.
By Beth · 13 min · Jul 10
GLP-1s Are Rewriting Employer Trend Assumptions for 2027
Mercer projects 2026 costs above $18,500 per employee while Aon finds GLP-1 use cuts diabetic medical cost growth 6 points at 30 months, a split forcing two different trend assumptions into 2027 renewal bids.
By Beth · 13 min · Jul 9
Mental Health Parity Rule Paused: The Actuarial Liability Gap
Regulators suspended the 2024 mental health parity rule's toughest provisions in May 2025 and plan a replacement by December 2026, leaving actuaries pricing against a 100% comparative-analysis deficiency rate.
By Beth · 12 min · Jul 8
Elevance Sues CMS Over $115M in Medicare Advantage Star Ratings: A Bonus Payment Consistency Problem
Elevance sued CMS on July 1, 2026 over $115 million in Medicare Advantage star rating bonuses, the third straight year litigation has forced a recalculation, and a warning sign for 2027 bid methodology risk.
By Beth · 11 min · Jul 7
CMS 2026-2027 Medicaid Rate Guide Takes Effect: MLTSS and ILOS Certification Challenges for Actuaries
The CMS 2026-2027 Medicaid Rate Guide, effective July 1, requires separate MLTSS category documentation and new ILOS cost certification, landing on actuaries certifying rates against contaminated base period data.
By Beth · 11 min · Jul 2
Medicare Advantage 2026: How Forced Disenrollment Reshapes Risk Pools and Locks In 2027 Bid Exposure
Carrier exits forced 2.9 million MA enrollees to switch plans in 2026, but 2027 bids were filed before those members arrived. V28 coding gaps and a 2.48% effective rate against 8-10% trend define the actuarial exposure.
By Beth · 9 min · Jul 1
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ACA Tracker 2027 individual-market rate filings to date
Rate Review →Sourced from federal Rate Review and state DOI filings. Green indicates improvement vs. prior-year period.