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Practice Area · Health

Health

Daily intelligence on health markets — ACA filings, Medicare Advantage, GLP-1 trend, prescription drug economics, and the actuarial judgment behind health rate review.

From Our Desk Original analysis · Health

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Medicare Advantage

V28 Risk Model Goes Full-Weight in PY 2026, Compressing MA Risk Scores by $11 Billion

CMS V28 risk adjustment model goes full-weight in PY 2026, cutting valid ICD-10 codes from 9,797 to 7,770 and projecting 3.12% average risk score compression. Plan bid strategy and $11B Trust Fund impact.

Health

CMS Prior Auth Metrics Go Public: Denial Rates, Processing Times, and Actuarial Pricing Impact

CMS-0057-F forces health plans to publish prior auth denial rates for the first time. Analysis of 50M+ MA determinations, plan-level variation, and 2027 rate filing implications.

Medicare Advantage

CMS Depression Screening Measure Adds Behavioral Health Layer to MA Star Ratings for 2027

CMS adds a Part C Depression Screening and Follow-Up measure to MA Star Ratings starting 2027. Actuarial modeling of screening costs, follow-up utilization, and bonus revenue at stake.

Health Pricing

$4.5M Gene Therapy Claims Force Stop-Loss Pricing Overhaul

48 FDA-approved CGTs with costs up to $4.25M break traditional stop-loss models. PEPM load framework, anti-selection adjustment, specific deductible stress test, and standalone product benchmarking.

Medicare Advantage

Medicare Advantage Premiums Fall While Benefits Shrink: KFF Spotlight Exposes the Actuarial Trade-Off

KFF's 2026 MA Spotlight reveals premiums declining while supplemental benefits erode. Actuarial analysis of how plans use benefit design as a margin lever under CMS rate compression.

ACA Tracker 2027 individual-market rate filings to date

Rate Review
Filings to date 31 states have posted 2027 individual-market filings. Weighted trend is +9.4%, with GLP-1 and inpatient unit-cost the two recurring drivers.
Avg. Filed Trend
+9.4%
0.3pt vs 2026
31 states filed
Median MLR
85.2%
1.4pt vs PY
PY = 2024
GLP-1 Adj.
+1.8%
0.6pt vs 2026
Filing avg
Risk Adj. Net
−0.4%
0.2pt vs PY
All-states avg

Sourced from federal Rate Review and state DOI filings. Green indicates improvement vs. prior-year period.

SOA Spotlight Society of Actuaries · Health practice

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