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Live · Wednesday, July 15, 2026 · Vol. III actuary.info Original analysis · Curated wire
The Daily Actuary
Reserving · Pricing · Regulation · Reinsurance · AI · Capital — every weekday morning
Featured Analysis · Technology & AI

Agentic AI Compounds Errors Across Actuarial Pricing Workflows

An agentic pricing pipeline compounds a bad ingestion assumption through triangle development, LDF selection, and rate indication with no correction, since the pipeline, not any model, is the real unit of risk.

Today's Original Analysis

7 pieces in today's edition
P&C

Reading Casualty Triangles After Record 2024 Adverse Development

U.S. casualty lines posted $15.8B in adverse prior-year development in 2024, the highest on record, as nuclear verdicts hit $31.3B, contaminating the loss development factors actuaries use for 2026 reserve reviews.

Filed Jul 15
Health

CMS-4215-P Locks Mandatory MFP Formulary Inclusion Into Part D Bid Math

CMS-4215-P would permanently codify mandatory Part D formulary inclusion and add up to 20 negotiated drugs a year from IPAY 2029. A GCDC, DIR, and AEBD bid math walkthrough before the August 17, 2026 comment deadline.

Filed Jul 15
Technology & AI

Explainable Boosting Machines Enter P&C Rate Filings as Explainability Enforcement Arrives

Explainable Boosting Machines, an interpretable model from Microsoft Research, are entering P&C rate filings as Colorado's July 2026 deadline and 23-state NAIC bulletin adoption make AI explainability enforceable.

Filed Jul 15
Reinsurance

Non-Marine Retro Rates Fall 20% as a Record Wave of Cat Bond Sponsors Enters

Gallagher Re's July 2026 data shows non-marine catastrophe retrocession rates falling 10% to 20% for loss-free accounts, as nine first-time sponsors turned to cat bonds to manage PML ahead of hurricane season.

Filed Jul 15
Regulation & Standards

IFRS 17's CSM Release Ratio Emerges as Life Insurer Report Card

KPMG's April 2026 review of 55 insurers shows IFRS 17 CSM release ratios diverging sharply by product line, and analysts now read that variation as a proxy for life insurer earnings quality.

Filed Jul 15
Regulation & Standards

NCOIL Stalls, NAIC Expands: Mapping the 2026 Insurer AI Compliance Maze

NCOIL shelved its AI model act in March 2026 after failing to reach consensus, leaving carriers to navigate four overlapping AI compliance regimes with no unified framework and a federal preemption fight unresolved.

Filed Jul 15
Health

WA Cares Fund's First Claims Put Actuarial Assumptions to the Test

WA Cares Fund began paying long-term care benefits July 1, 2026, testing Milliman's projection of 25,000 to 35,000 year-one claimants against its 2099 solvency finding at a 0.58% payroll premium rate.

Filed Jul 15
U.S. casualty lines posted $15.8B in adverse prior-year development in 2024, the highest on record, as nuclear verdicts hit $31.3B, contaminating the loss development factors actuaries use for 2026 reserve reviews. Sarah, in today's edition

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