Global commercial insurance rates fell 5% in the third quarter of 2026, the ninth consecutive quarterly decline, Marsh said on October 21 in its Global Insurance Market Index, after a 6% fall in the second quarter. Property led at 10% down, casualty was the only line to rise, at 1%, and the US composite slipped 1%.
"Market conditions remained broadly unchanged, with continued rate pressure across much of the market," said John Donnelly, president of global placement at Marsh, adding that "a benign U.S. hurricane season contributed to favorable underwriting results." Marsh described the slower composite decline as early signs of rate stabilization, per Carrier Management on October 22.
The index landed in the same week as two carrier prints that put numbers on the property side. Chubb said gross premium pricing for North America commercial property fell 4.2% in the quarter, and 11% in shared and layered major-account and specialty business, on its October 21 earnings call. Kinsale reported on October 22 that premium in its property divisions fell 19.3%, with the Commercial Property Division down 26.8%.
Key Takeaways
- Property fell 10% globally after 12% in the second quarter and 9% in the first; casualty rose 1% after 2%, so both lines slowed at once.
- US property fell 10%, with catastrophe-exposed programs above $1 million of premium down 13% against 9% for non-cat programs.
- US casualty rose 6%, or 9% excluding workers compensation; risk-adjusted umbrella and excess rose 13%, down from 15%, and 8% on a traditional basis.
- Financial and professional lines fell 3% for a seventeenth consecutive quarter; cyber fell 4% for a thirteenth, while US cyber was flat.
- Kinsale's gross written premium fell 4.8% to $462.9 million, and only 0.5% excluding the Commercial Property Division, at a 75.4% combined ratio.
Two decelerations that read as one
The composite moved from minus 6% to minus 5% because the two largest lines each moved toward zero from opposite sides. Property's decline eased to 10% from 12%, and casualty's increase eased to 1% from 2%. An average of a line still falling and a line still rising reads as stabilization while neither line has stabilized.
Regionally, the decline runs from 14% in IMEA and 12% in the Pacific through 9% in Latin America, 8% in the UK and 6% in Canada, Europe and Asia, to 1% in the US. Property fell in every region, from 15% in IMEA to 7% in Asia, with the US at 10% after 13% in the second quarter. Marsh's US commentary describes expanded capacity, broader coverage, higher limits and caps on catastrophe deductibles, with cat programs above $1 million of premium down 13% against 9% for the rest.
| Marsh index, year-on-year rate change | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Global composite | -5% | -6% |
| Global property | -10% | -12% |
| Global casualty | +1% | +2% |
| Global financial and professional | -3% | -3% |
| Global cyber | -4% | -4% |
| US composite | -1% | -2% |
| US property | -10% | -13% |
| US casualty | +6% | +7% |
| US umbrella and excess, risk-adjusted | +13% | +15% |
| US umbrella and excess, traditional | +8% | +11% |
| US cyber | flat | 13th straight decline |
Source: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, Q3 2026 release of October 21, 2026, and the Marsh US insurance rates commentary for the third quarter.
The carrier prints give the property decline a shape the index cannot. Chubb's North America commercial net premiums written fell 2.7% to $5,512 million, or rose 1.7% excluding large-account property, including excess and surplus, and financial lines, according to its Form 8-K. Chief executive Evan Greenberg said major accounts and specialty premiums declined 5%, with property pricing down 11% in shared and layered business and up "a little over a 0.5%" in mid and small business.
Kinsale's Commercial Property Division fell 26.8% after a 32.7% decline in the second quarter, per its third-quarter release, and gross written premium through nine months is down 3.5% to $1,472.5 million. Casualty premium rose 0.9% on more bound accounts, partly offset by a shift toward smaller ones. The site covered the second-quarter retreat in July.
Casualty's 13% on a smaller base
US casualty rose 6% against 7% in the second quarter, and 9% excluding workers compensation. Umbrella and excess rose 13% on a risk-adjusted basis, down from 15%, and 8% on a traditional basis, down from 11%. Auto increases were commonly in the high single digits and in double digits on standalone placements. Marsh said auto loss ratios have stayed above 100% for over a decade, and that insureds are leaning on program structure, higher retentions, higher attachment points and lower limits.
The five-point gap between the risk-adjusted and traditional excess figures is the structure change. A renewal that raises its attachment point and buys less limit shows a smaller premium increase on a traditional basis than the rate it is paying per unit of exposure. The 13% is the price of the layer; the 8% is closer to what the carrier books. Carrier Management reported casualty capacity becoming more selective, with higher attachment points and large settlements influencing pricing.
Greenberg described the other side of that market on the Chubb call: "pricing in numerous areas is failing to keep pace with loss costs," which "continue to well outpace general inflation," while "there is a lot of hungry and extremely naive capacity available." Chubb's own North America casualty pricing rose 5.7% and financial lines 2.1% in the quarter, against the 4.2% property decline.
The pattern matches the cross-subsidy the site found in CIAB's second-quarter survey, where property gave back 6.3% while umbrella rose 5.3% and auto 4.5% inside a 2% blended decline, and the deceleration W. R. Berkley reported a week earlier, with rate increases halving to 4%. Selective's standard commercial renewal pure price slowed to 5.7% from 8.9% in the quarter it reported last week.
Where the flat lines are
Financial and professional lines fell 3% globally for a seventeenth straight quarter and rose 1% in the US, with D&O and professional liability each up 1%. Marsh said flat renewals are the US norm unless claims or transactions change the risk profile, the position the site described in June as underwriters holding the line at a bottom.
Cyber fell 4% globally for a thirteenth quarter and was flat in the US, the first quarter without a decrease in that run. Marsh noted new insurtech MGAs adding small-business capacity and insurers introducing AI endorsements that need client review, and listed cyber risks tied to AI, vendor dependencies, privacy and ransomware among the areas of greatest underwriting scrutiny, alongside catastrophe exposure, US casualty and D&O.
Marsh cited favorable reinsurance terms as one factor behind lower primary rates, and Donnelly said some clients were "more inclined to retain premium savings" amid geopolitical uncertainty. The index first turned down in the third quarter of 2024. Its fourth-quarter reading, and the January 1 reinsurance renewal that sets the property capacity behind it, both arrive in January.