Premium renewal rate change eased in five of the six commercial lines the Ivans Index tracks in the third quarter of 2026, Ivans, the Applied Systems unit, said on October 28. Umbrella kept the highest reading at 6.88%, down from 7.96% in the second quarter, and workers' compensation, at -1.17% after -1.37% in the second quarter and -1.42% a year earlier, was the only line to move the other way.
"Commercial renewal rate change eased across most lines this quarter as the market continues to soften," said Michael Streit, president of Applied Carrier, in the release. He added that "we are seeing agencies and brokers alike trying to consolidate their business with preferred partners."
The index arrived a week after Marsh reported its global composite down 5% for a ninth consecutive quarter, with US excess casualty up 13% on a risk-adjusted basis, and nine days after W. R. Berkley put its third-quarter rate increases excluding comp at about 4%, half the year-earlier figure, as the site reported. Ivans measures a different market from either: agency-placed small and mid-market business, drawn from more than 120 million transactions across 38,000-plus agencies and 600-plus insurers and MGAs.
Key Takeaways
- Umbrella's 6.88% is down from 8.99% in the third quarter of 2025, the highest reading of the six lines in both years.
- General liability had the steepest slide inside the quarter, from 4.99% in July to 3.19% in September.
- Commercial property eased to 5.65% from 6.40%, and the business owners policy line to 5.61% from 6.16%.
- Commercial auto sits almost four points below the 7.60% Ivans reported for the third quarter of 2025, the largest year-on-year gap of the six lines.
Six lines, one direction
Commercial auto averaged 3.63% for the quarter against 4.93% in the second, general liability 4.12% against 5.44%, commercial property 5.65% against 6.40%, BOP 5.61% against 6.16% and umbrella 6.88% against 7.96%, according to the release. Workers' compensation averaged -1.17% against -1.37%. Business Insurance reported the same day that comp was the only line with price decreases and that those decreases were slightly smaller than in the second quarter.
| Ivans Index, premium renewal rate change | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | September 2026 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial auto | 3.63% | 4.93% | 3.29% | 7.60% |
| Business owners policy | 5.61% | 6.16% | n/a (August 5.44%) | 7.55% |
| General liability | 4.12% | 5.44% | 3.19% | 5.89% |
| Commercial property | 5.65% | 6.40% | 5.11% | 7.64% |
| Umbrella | 6.88% | 7.96% | 6.40% | 8.99% |
| Workers' compensation | -1.17% | -1.37% | n/a (August -1.10%) | -1.42% |
Sources: Ivans Index Q3 2026 results, released October 28, 2026, and Ivans Index Q3 2025 results, released October 23, 2025. The release gives each line's monthly high and low; for BOP and workers' compensation the September figure was neither, so the August figure is shown.
Within the quarter, every line that moved fell from July to September. Commercial auto ran 4.03% in July and 3.29% in September. General liability went from 4.99% to 3.19%, commercial property from 6.16% to 5.11% and umbrella from 7.42% to 6.40%. BOP posted its high of 5.94% in July and its low of 5.44% in August; comp was at its widest, -1.26%, in July and its narrowest, -1.10%, in August. Risk & Insurance wrote on October 30 that general liability had the steepest within-quarter drop and the widest year-on-year gap.
A year earlier, the Q3 2025 release of October 23, 2025 had general liability as the one line rising quarter over quarter, to 5.89% from 4.66%, with commercial auto at 7.60%, property at 7.64%, BOP at 7.55% and umbrella at 8.99%. Kathy Hrach, Ivans' senior vice president of product management, attributed that quarter's easing to a more balanced market and to hard-market repricing largely absorbed in prior renewals. Twelve months on, commercial auto has given up 3.97 points and general liability 1.77, while comp's decline has narrowed by a quarter of a point.
What a consistent-policy renewal measures
The release describes the index as measuring "the premium difference year over year for a single consistent policy," published monthly for the most placed commercial lines. Holding the policy constant strips out new business, non-renewals and most exposure growth, which is what separates the figure from a written-premium change and puts it closer to a pure rate change than any other public series for the agency market.
That makes it the nearest public proxy to the rate-change input in an accident-year loss ratio projection, where the expected loss ratio for the coming year is the current ratio carried forward at loss trend and divided by the change in rate level. On the general liability line, the denominator ran at 4.12% for the quarter and 3.19% in September.
The numerator, loss trend, is not something Ivans measures, and neither of the carriers whose third-quarter prints the site covered put a figure on it. Where trend runs above the renewal rate change, the projected loss ratio rises, and a September print near 3% leaves a narrower margin than the 4.99% of July or the 6.78% Ivans recorded for September 2025.
Selective's chief financial officer Patrick Brennan said on October 23 that "overall, loss trends have generally remained in line with our expectations," without giving a number, according to the call transcript. W. R. Berkley declined to quantify trend on its own call, as the site reported, with Rob Berkley saying it "would be premature to declare victory at this stage."
The broker indices describe larger accounts and read differently. Marsh's third-quarter index, as the site reported, had the global composite down 5% and the US composite down 1%, with US casualty up 6%, or 9% excluding workers' compensation, and risk-adjusted umbrella and excess up 13% as buyers raised attachment points. The Ivans book shows no line in double digits and none below zero except comp; its umbrella reading of 6.88% is the agency market's version of the excess casualty firmness Marsh reports at 13% for large accounts.
The carrier prints beside it
W. R. Berkley reported an average rate increase excluding workers' compensation of approximately 4.0% in its October 19 release, down from 7.6% in the third quarter of 2025, with its accident-year combined ratio before catastrophes improving to 88.1%, as the site reported. The figure sits a fraction under Ivans' 4.12% for general liability and over its 3.63% for commercial auto.
Selective reported standard commercial renewal pure price of 5.7% and retention of 82% in its Form 8-K of October 22, against 8.9% a year earlier, as the site reported. On the call Brennan put the figure at 6.4% excluding workers' compensation, with general liability pricing up 7.9%, commercial auto pricing up 7.6% and commercial auto liability up 11.6%. Chief executive John Marchioni said renewal pure price on the company's lowest-performing cohorts rose 17.2%, from 12.8% a year earlier, and that overall renewal premium change in commercial auto was just under 11%.
Selective's general liability at 7.9% runs almost four points above the Ivans market average of 4.12%, on a book where retention on the weakest cohorts fell to 52%, as the site reported. Its excess and surplus segment, by contrast, took renewal pure price of 1.5%, per the 8-K. Berkley's blended 4% sits on the Ivans line; Selective's standard commercial book sits above it, and its E&S book below.
Ivans publishes the index monthly, and its last three releases came on August 11 for July, September 9 for August and October 28 for the quarter. The October 2026 reading, the first of the fourth quarter, is the next.