Chubb booked $575 million of favorable prior-period development in short-tail lines and $13 million of adverse development in long-tail lines in the third quarter, chief financial officer Peter Enns told analysts on October 21, with the adverse movement sitting in accident years chief executive Evan Greenberg placed at "more 2019 to 2022," according to the call transcript. The more recent years, Greenberg said, "while they may be developing more favorably, they're green. We wouldn't touch them."
Every large carrier that has reported the quarter so far shows net favorable development, and in each case the release came from somewhere other than casualty. Travelers' $234 million was net of a $295 million asbestos addition and led by surety, management liability and personal lines. Selective booked zero casualty development for a third straight quarter. RLI released $8.2 million from a casualty segment running at a 99.6 combined ratio, and Old Republic's 1.1 points of favorable development came with unfavorable general liability.
The reinsurers have gone further. Marcus Winter, president and chief executive of Munich Re's North American P&C reinsurance business, said at the September Rendez-Vous that actuaries reassessing casualty triangles could conclude the 2022 to 2025 underwriting years need additional support in the third- and fourth-quarter reserve reviews, according to The Insurer. Those are the hard-market years that were supposed to be the good ones.
Key Takeaways
- Chubb's $562 million of favorable development in its active companies splits into $575 million short-tail and $13 million adverse long-tail, with a further $51 million adverse in corporate run-off, mostly environmental.
- Greenberg described the adverse long-tail years as 2019 to 2022 and "reasonably modest," and recent years as green: "We're slow to recognize favorable development but very quick to recognize adverse."
- Travelers' Business Insurance segment released $41 million net of the $295 million asbestos charge, on "better than expected loss experience in all major product lines primarily for recent accident years."
- Swiss Re says it reserves "at the upper end of the best estimate range" and raised loss assumptions 4.4% this year against a 4.6% risk-adjusted price decline; Munich Re's Winter called longer casualty claims development structural rather than a court backlog.
- Hartford reports October 26, CNA November 2, AIG November 3, Swiss Re November 5 and Munich Re November 12, the reviews Winter was pointing at.
Where the third-quarter releases came from
Chubb's P&C combined ratio was 84.1% against 81.8%, on $705 million of catastrophe losses and $511 million of favorable prior-period development net of run-off, per its Form 8-K. The site's reading of the supplement found $379 million of that in North America Personal and $14 million in North America Commercial on $5.2 billion of premium. Enns said loss reserves "are now over $71 billion, are conservatively constructed and remain extremely strong," with a paid-to-incurred ratio of 80% for the quarter and 86% year to date.
Travelers reported net favorable development of $234 million pre-tax, 2.1 points of combined ratio, against $22 million a year earlier, per its October 16 release. Business Insurance contributed $41 million after the asbestos addition, Bond & Specialty $95 million from fidelity and surety for recent accident years and general liability "for management liability coverages for multiple accident years," and Personal Insurance $98 million from homeowners and auto. Chief financial officer Dan Frey said on the call that the company saw favorability "in commercial auto, commercial property, CMP, general liability, workers' comp," none of it "particularly outsized," while "leaving a provision for the level of uncertainty that comes out of those long tail lines."
| Carrier, Q3 2026 | Net prior-year development | Casualty or long-tail component | Accident years cited |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chubb (active companies) | $562M favorable | $13M adverse long-tail; $51M adverse run-off | Adverse in about 2019 to 2022; recent years "green" |
| Travelers | $234M favorable | $295M asbestos addition; GL favorable in management liability | Recent accident years for the releases |
| Selective | $0 casualty | No development at segment or line level | GL stable seven consecutive quarters |
| RLI | $20.1M favorable | Casualty $8.2M favorable at a 99.6 combined ratio | Q2 10-Q: 2020, 2021, 2024 and 2025 |
| Old Republic | 1.1 points favorable (2.5 a year ago) | GL and financial indemnity unfavorable | Not disclosed |
| W. R. Berkley | Not stated in release | H1 10-Q: other liability and auto liability adverse, offset by short-tail | Not disclosed |
| Progressive (nine months) | $1,536M favorable | Personal and commercial auto | Prior accident years |
Sources: Chubb Q3 2026 call transcript and Form 8-K; Travelers Form 8-K of October 16, 2026 and call; Selective Form 8-K of October 22, 2026; RLI Form 8-K of October 19, 2026 and Form 10-Q for June 30, 2026; Old Republic Form 8-K of October 22, 2026; W. R. Berkley Form 8-K of October 19, 2026 and Form 10-Q for June 30, 2026; Progressive Form 8-K of October 2026.
The years nobody will release
Greenberg's answer sets out the position most carriers are taking without saying it. "Casualty underwriting is not for optimists," he said, and "the stinger is in the tail in development." A calendar-year release is the sum of movements across every open accident year, and the pattern in this quarter's disclosures is that the money comes out of years and lines that settle fast while the long-tail years from 2019 on are either held or added to.
Chubb's adverse years, 2019 to 2022, are the ones the site's Schedule P review found deteriorating across the industry, after 2024 produced $15.8 billion of adverse casualty development. Hartford's $116 million general liability charge in the second quarter fell on 2017 to 2019 and 2022 to 2023, which management tied to the frequency of large losses piercing excess and umbrella attachments. AIG's second-quarter release carried slight strengthening in US excess casualty, in first-layer umbrella and high excess.
The years after 2022 are a different problem. At 24 to 48 months of maturity, general liability and excess casualty have reported a small share of ultimate, so the booked ratio for those years is still mostly the pricing assumption plus a development pattern. Releasing them means trusting the pattern. Frey said Travelers' loss costs "continue to go up, but they are not going up by any more than we anticipated in our picks," and chief executive Alan Schnitzer said there were "no surprises at all in terms of the loss environment," which is the reasoning for holding rather than releasing; the company has carried an explicit provision for uncertainty in its long-tail IBNR since 2024, as the site covered in April.
Winter's point is about the pattern itself. Longer claims development in US casualty looks structural rather than a pandemic-era court backlog, he told The Insurer, and if that is right then tail factors fitted to pre-2020 settlement speeds understate the 2022 to 2025 years even where case incurred looks on plan. He said primary casualty rates were still rising, unlike property, but questioned whether the increases were sufficient. Greenberg's 5.7% North America casualty pricing came with the remark that pricing "in numerous areas is failing to keep pace with loss costs."
The paid-to-incurred figure is the one number in the quarter that speaks to the pattern. At 80% for Chubb's quarter against 86% year to date, paid losses ran further behind incurred than they had through June, which is consistent with incurred rising on the long-tail book while payments lag, and also with a quarter of catastrophe incurred that has not yet been paid. The 10-Q will separate the two.
What the reinsurers are booking
Swiss Re's property and casualty reinsurance segment ran a 76.7% combined ratio in the first half, per Insurance Business, and chief financial officer Anders Malmström said on the August call that the group sits "at the upper end of the best estimate range," consistent with a 90th-percentile reserving philosophy, with mid-triple-digit-million reserve releases expected for the year, according to the call summary. He attributed a $1 billion short-tail release to the unwind of prior prudence after benign catastrophe experience and said additions to long-tail IBNR were "not a reaction to worsening trends."
The pricing side is where Swiss Re's casualty view shows. Nominal mid-year renewal prices fell 1.2% on $4.5 billion of treaty volume, and 5.3% after updated loss assumptions; loss assumptions rose 4.4% year to date against a 4.6% risk-adjusted price decline. "Loss assumptions have been increased more than nominal price changes," chief executive Andreas Berger said. Swiss Re added $2.4 billion to US liability reserves in the third quarter of 2024 and reports nine-month figures on November 5.
Munich Re's group position is that nothing changes. Chief executive Christoph Jurecka said on the August call that no change to the reserving philosophy is planned to offset the cycle and that the current conservatism in loss picks would not be compromised, while US casualty volume was cut again at July 1. Stefan Golling, the board member for global clients, said at Monte Carlo in 2024 that the industry "clearly failed in assessing the claims and inflation trends properly" and that "reinsurers are part of that problem," per Global Reinsurance. Winter told Business Insurance in November 2024 that Munich Re had been cautious on 2021, 2022 and 2023 "for a long time"; his September remarks extend the list to 2025.
The reviews Winter described arrive over the next three weeks: Hartford after the close on October 26, CNA on November 2, AIG on November 3, Swiss Re on November 5 and Munich Re's full third quarter on November 12. The industry Schedule P that will show accident years 2021 to 2025 side by side is filed in March.