Cargo Theft Losses Double to $304.6M as Incident Counts Fall 26%

Verisk CargoNet recorded 677 supply chain theft incidents across the United States and Canada in the second quarter of 2026, down 26% year over year and 14% from the first quarter, while the estimated value stolen climbed to $304.6 million from $135.7 million a year earlier (Verisk CargoNet, August 6, 2026). Aggregate value per recorded incident roughly tripled in twelve months.

Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk CargoNet, framed what changed underneath the count: "Lower incident volume should not be mistaken for lower risk. The groups driving the largest losses are not necessarily trying to steal more freight; they are trying to identify the right shipment" (FleetOwner, August 2026). The average reported commodity value for the quarter was $564,009.

$564,009

Average reported commodity value per Q2 2026 theft, against a $273,990 full-year 2025 average (Verisk CargoNet)

158

Fictitious pickup events in Q2 2026, down only from 165 while straight theft fell from 488 to 378

Metal theft events, up from 54, with copper the most frequently targeted commodity

Key Takeaways

Verisk CargoNet recorded 677 supply chain theft incidents in Q2 2026, down 26% year over year, while estimated value stolen climbed to $304.6 million from $135.7 million.
Aggregate value per recorded incident roughly tripled in twelve months. Frequency and severity moved in opposite directions, which is the whole problem for a loss-cost selection.
The two published figures do not share a denominator: $304.6 million over 677 events is near $450,000, while the $564,009 average is computed only over events with a disclosed commodity value.
The annual prints give the cleaner base. Average value per theft was $273,990 in 2025, up 36% from $202,364 in 2024, on 3,594 recorded events against 3,607 the prior year.
CargoNet reports estimated stolen commodity value, not insured loss. Deductibles, sublimits, subrogation and recovered freight sit between that series and paid indemnity, none of them disclosed at industry level.

What the $564,009 Average Is an Average Of

CargoNet publishes two figures that do not share a denominator. Estimated losses of $304.6 million spread across 677 recorded events works out near $450,000 per event, while the $564,009 average reported commodity value is computed over the subset of events with a disclosed commodity value. Trending the second series against a prior-period figure built on the first mixes bases, and the gap between the two is wide enough to change a selection.

The annual prints give the cleaner base. CargoNet's full-year analysis put the average value per theft at $273,990 in 2025, up 36% from $202,364 in 2024, on 3,594 recorded events against 3,607 the prior year, with confirmed cargo theft rising 18% from 2,243 to 2,646 events (Verisk CargoNet via Claims Journal, January 2026). Total 2025 losses reached nearly $725 million, a 60% increase over 2024.

CargoNet reports estimated stolen commodity value, not insured loss. Deductibles, high-value sublimits, subrogation against the responsible carrier and recovered freight all sit between that figure and paid indemnity, and none of them are disclosed at an industry level. The gap works against anyone taking comfort from it: a sublimit that caps indemnity hard on a $100,000 load caps a $2 million load much less, so insured severity should track the gross series more closely at the top of the distribution than at the bottom.

A severity trend fitted to those annual averages selects something in the mid-thirties. The quarter just reported prints at roughly double the 2025 annual average. One quarter does not overturn a fitted trend, but it does put weight on whether the 2024-to-2025 movement was a trend at all or a mix shift that no single selected factor carries forward cleanly.

The Frequency Decline Sits in the Class Deterrence Credits Reach

Events classified as theft fell from 488 in Q2 2025 to 378 in Q2 2026. Fictitious pickup barely moved, 165 to 158. Physical thefts of loaded equipment and non-delivery fraud involving recently acquired motor carriers dropped sharply in California and Texas, while business email compromise and shipment misdirection held at steady levels (Verisk CargoNet, August 2026).

Across those two named classes the fictitious pickup share rose from 25% to 29%. Anti-theft schedule credits, and the parking, yard-security and driver-in-attendance warranties that support them, are built against the class that shrank. None of them touch a load released to someone holding a cloned carrier identity at a legitimate dock.

That leaves the credit structure wrong in two directions at once. The earned credit over-rewards an account whose residual exposure has migrated into a fraud vector, and the account's remaining loss potential concentrates in a class the schedule does not measure.

Where the Incremental Dollar Lands in the Tower

Motor truck cargo primary limits cluster well below these averages, with high-value commodity sublimits and separate theft sublimits stacked on top and the real capacity written as excess layers. Moving a ground-up mean from roughly $274,000 toward a quarter at $564,009 puts almost the entire incremental dollar above the primary attachment. The base loss cost moves modestly; the increased-limits factor curve and the excess placement priced off it absorb the shift.

Commodity concentration is what drives the tail. Metal theft events rose from 54 to 80, copper most frequently targeted, with aluminum, nickel and tungsten also increasing. Enterprise computing and networking equipment and cryptocurrency mining rigs carried the technology side. Food and beverage theft fell by 36 events while seafood rose by 11 (Verisk CargoNet via Claims Journal, August 2026).

Verisk CargoNet metric	Q2 2025	Q2 2026
Estimated value stolen	$135.7M	$304.6M
Events classified as theft	488	378
Fictitious pickup events	165	158
Metal theft events	54	80
Average reported commodity value	Not disclosed	$564,009
Recorded incidents, all classes	Not disclosed	677 (down 26% YoY)

The metals mix carries an exposure-base consequence a blanket schedule rate will miss. Copper, nickel and tungsten are exchange-priced, so declared value per load moves with the commodity market without any change in load count, miles or power units. A rate expressed per $100 of declared value self-corrects for that drift. A rate expressed per power unit or per mile does not, and a metals-heavy fleet drifts toward inadequacy on commodity price alone.

Accumulation is the second exposure the count masks. California, Texas and New Jersey together accounted for half of all recorded thefts, concentrated at warehouse and distribution centers and truck stops. A per-conveyance limit calibrated against a $273,990 annual average is a different instrument once the aggregate is being set by multimillion-dollar single loads.

Montgomery Pushes Fictitious Pickup Onto the Broker Tower

On May 14, 2026 the Supreme Court held unanimously in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC that the FAAAA does not preempt state-law negligent-selection claims against freight brokers, reasoning that requiring a broker to exercise ordinary care in choosing carriers "concerns motor vehicles, most obviously, the trucks that will transport the goods" (DLA Piper, May 2026). Justice Kavanaugh's concurrence added that "state tort law can be unpredictable, and the costs to brokers of litigation and insurance may be significant even when brokers prevail."

A fictitious pickup is a carrier-selection failure by construction. The preemption defense previously kept a large share of that exposure on the cargo policy; it now runs through broker and 3PL errors and omissions and contingent cargo as well. The same 158 quarterly events price into three towers rather than one, and the E&O severity distribution inherits the commodity mix that produced the $564,009 average.

The mix change moves the development and defense-cost profile with it. A straight theft is reported to police and to the carrier within a day and then argues about value. A fictitious pickup argues about whether the loss is a covered theft at all, because the goods were handed over voluntarily, and that argument runs through coverage counsel before it produces an indemnity number. A book drifting toward that class reports later, develops longer, and carries a heavier ALAE load per claim than the historical triangle was built on.

Broker financial responsibility tightened in the same direction. Since January 16, 2026 the "assets readily available" definition and the removal of loan and finance companies as BMC-85 trustees have been in force, and FMCSA may suspend a broker whose available financial security falls below $75,000 and is not restored within seven calendar days (FMCSA final rule, per Benesch, 2026). Thinner broker balance sheets push more of the recovery onto insurance rather than onto the defendant.

A Softening Marine Market Against a Shifting Severity Distribution

The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers put average commercial premium down 2.0% in the second quarter, with large accounts down 3.7% and marine among the ten lines that declined; commercial property led the decrease at 6.3%. Commercial auto rose 4.5% and umbrella 5.3%, its thirty-fifth consecutive quarterly increase (CIAB via Insurance Journal, August 2026). Marsh put the global composite down 6% and US casualty up 7%, or 11% excluding workers compensation (Marsh, July 2026).

So the cargo and marine side of a transportation account takes rate down in the same quarter that the liability side takes rate up on the same insured. Competitive pressure runs hardest on the excess layer that just absorbed the severity shift, because that is where new capacity shows up first. actuary.info's coverage of inland marine's loss ratio hitting an eleven-year low tracked the same capacity inflow from the other side of the ledger.

What Moves in the Next Indication

Three selections change before the next filing. Severity splits by commodity band rather than running one factor across the schedule, because metals and enterprise technology now carry the tail and food and beverage no longer do. The anti-theft credit schedule gains a second axis for identity and pickup-verification controls, since the existing axis prices a class that shed 110 events. The per-conveyance accumulation assumption gets reset against multimillion-dollar single loads rather than against an annual average.

At renewal, the questions for the reinsurer are whether the theft treaty responds to voluntary parting and theft by trick at all, where the per-conveyance limit sits relative to the high-value commodity sublimit, and whether the excess cargo layer is still rated off an ILF curve fitted before 2025. For the brokers and 3PLs on the account, the post-Montgomery E&O limit and the contingent cargo attachment point are now the load-bearing terms in the placement.

CargoNet's third-quarter report lands in early November and will show whether $564,009 was a quarter or a level. CIAB's Q3 survey follows later that month with the next marine reading. The January 2027 annual analysis is the print that settles whether full-year 2026 average value per theft clears $400,000, which is the number that would force the ILF curve rather than the base rate.