Aon Puts Nine-Month Insured Cat Losses at $91B, Lowest Since 2019

Aon put global insured losses from natural catastrophes at about $91 billion for the first nine months of 2026, the lowest total for the period since 2019 and well below the five-year average of $135 billion, Aon said on October 29.

Economic losses reached about $204 billion, 31% below the 21st-century average of $296 billion and the lowest January-to-September figure since 2015, its Global Catastrophe Recap for the third quarter said. The insured figure sits 3% above the 21st-century mean of $88 billion for the period. In 2019, the comparison year, the nine-month total was $76 billion, Artemis noted.

The recap comes days after Gallagher Re put the same nine months at about $92 billion, and as reinsurers report a third quarter light on catastrophe losses. Munich Re raised its 2026 profit guidance on October 23 with major losses "below average expectations," as the site reported, while Everest booked $322 million of pre-tax catastrophe losses for the quarter, led by the Colombia earthquake.

Key Takeaways

Economic losses reached about $204 billion, 31% below the 21st-century average and the lowest nine-month total since 2015, leaving 55% of losses uninsured.
Twenty-three events each cost insurers more than $1 billion, against a 21st-century average of 14, and none passed $10 billion.
The European drought was the costliest insured event at more than $8.5 billion, with France's $5 billion insured loss a national record.
The Atlantic produced no hurricane through September 30 for the fourth time since 1950, after 1962, 1972 and 1994.

Where the losses fell

The United States recorded $56 billion of insured losses through September, which Aon described as an average result for the period, dominated by summer and winter storms with little from tropical cyclones. Severe convective storm losses stand at more than $43 billion, below the elevated totals of the last three years and still well above average, the report said. Globally, 2026 already ranks among the five costliest SCS years on record.

Europe carried the two largest non-US entries. The season-long drought produced economic losses of about $14.5 billion and insured losses in excess of $8.5 billion, most of it clay shrink-swell subsidence damage in France, which recorded about $7.5 billion economic and $5 billion insured, both national records.

France's Central Reinsurance Fund, the CCR, now counts drought as the leading source of claims under the national natural disaster scheme, and on July 1 the government introduced a new subsidence risk map covering about 55% of the country, the report said.

European severe convective storms added at least EUR 7.6 billion, or $8.6 billion, of industry losses, with the hailstorms of August 26 to 28 across France, Switzerland and Italy ranking as the costliest SCS event in Switzerland on record. Canada passed $3.3 billion of insured losses, its fourth-highest nine-month total since 2000 and above the 21st-century average of $2.2 billion, led by a June 9 to 10 hailstorm in Saskatchewan and Manitoba that generated 35,000 claims at Manitoba Public Insurance, a provincial record.

South America supplied the two largest economic losses. The June 24 Venezuela earthquake cost about $25 billion and 6,509 lives, with only a small insured share because of limited insurance penetration, while the August 10 Colombia earthquake cost $9.6 billion economic and $1.9 billion insured and was the costliest event of the third quarter. Michal Lörinc, head of Catastrophe Insight for Aon's Reinsurance business, said in the October 29 release that the two earthquakes showed how such events transfer a financial burden to households and governments where protection gaps are wide.

Event, January to September 2026	Economic loss	Insured loss
US severe convective storm outbreaks	$54 billion	$43 billion
European drought	$14.5 billion	$8.5 billion
Venezuela earthquake (June 24)	$25 billion	small share
Colombia earthquake (August 10)	$9.6 billion	$1.9 billion
Typhoon Dolphin, China	$4.3 billion	$0.5 billion
Canada, all events	n/a	$3.3 billion+

Sources: Aon, Global Catastrophe Recap: Third Quarter of 2026, Exhibits 4, 5 and 8 and the Appendix, October 29, 2026. Figures are preliminary and inflation-adjusted to 2026 dollars.

Frequency without a headline event

Aon counted 42 events with economic losses above $1 billion through September, against a 21st-century average of 37, and 23 with insured losses above $1 billion, against an average of 14. The loss picture for the industry, the report said, had not changed since the end of the second quarter: generally manageable losses and no event above $10 billion. The costliest insured events of the third quarter were two US SCS outbreaks, June 30 to July 6 and August 8 to 17, at $3.0 billion each.

That shape, many events in the $1 billion to $4 billion range and none above $10 billion, leaves most of the loss with primary carriers and the lower layers of their programmes. Munich Re's property-casualty reinsurance segment ran major losses at 4.9% of net insurance revenue in the second quarter against an 18% budget, and said on October 23 that the third quarter again came in below expectations, per the site's coverage. Everest's $322 million of third-quarter catastrophe losses, 10.5 points of combined ratio, were led by the Colombia earthquake, which Aon's report describes as an event with substantial reinsurance recoveries that the industry views as manageable.

The third quarter on its own came in at $29 billion insured, 31% below the 21st-century average, and $72 billion economic, 51% below average and the fifth lowest since 2000. Eight third-quarter events passed $1 billion insured, against an average of five.

The year-to-date figure is what cedents and reinsurers carry into the January 1, 2027 renewal. Munich Re board member Stefan Golling said in September that further softening at January 1 looks likely absent a major catastrophe, and Marsh Re's global property catastrophe rate-on-line index was about 16% lower for 2026 through the mid-year renewals, per the same coverage. Aon's figures put the year $44 billion below the $135 billion five-year average, with nine more billion-dollar insured events than the long-term count of 14.

The protection gap, the share of economic losses not insured, stood at 55%, against a long-term average of 71%, which Aon attributed to the composition of this year's loss drivers.

The quiet Atlantic and the fourth quarter

The Atlantic hurricane season passed September 30 without a single hurricane, the fourth such season since 1950 after 1962, 1972 and 1994, the report said. The basin produced eight named storms, all weak and short-lived, and accumulated cyclone energy reached 10.8 through September 30 against a climatological average of 94.1, citing Colorado State University.

The eastern and central Pacific ran the other way, with eight major hurricanes including three Category 5 storms, Genevieve, Lowell and Polo. Aon traced both extremes to a very strong El Niño; the NOAA Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90% chance that the event qualifies as very strong, and sea-surface anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region stand at about 3°C.

Aon said the record-low Atlantic activity was partially moderated in early October by Hurricane Isaias and may still be affected by other late-season storms. Fourth-quarter insured losses average $16 billion and economic losses another $50 billion, the report said, and Aon expects the additional activity to push annual insured losses above $100 billion.

"Moderate global totals can mask significant regional impacts and emerging concentrations of risk," Lörinc said in the release.

Aon Puts Nine-Month Insured Cat Losses at $91B, Lowest Since 2019

Key Takeaways

Where the losses fell

Frequency without a headline event

The quiet Atlantic and the fourth quarter

Further Reading

Sources