Senate Banking Sends a Clean TRIA to 2034 While the House Bill Doubles the Certification Floor

The Senate Banking Committee voted 24-0 on September 17 to report S. 4395, which extends the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program from December 31, 2027 to December 31, 2034 and changes nothing else (S. 4395 text, GovInfo; Insurance Journal, September 17, 2026). The House passed H.R. 7128 on June 29 by 373 votes to 15, with a certification floor that doubles to $10 million from 2029 (Real Estate Roundtable, June 2026).

Trade coverage that reported a 2037 expiry misread the bill: the text strikes "2027" and inserts "2034," and the sponsors' own release calls it a seven-year extension (McCormick, April 27, 2026). What the two chambers must now reconcile is the per-carrier floor and the certification clock, the two provisions the House added and the Senate left out.

Key Takeaways

Two sections is the whole of S. 4395: a title, the 2027-to-2034 substitution, and a seven-year shift in the mandatory recoupment deadlines from 2024 and 2029 to 2031 and 2036 (S. 4395, introduced April 27, 2026).
$10 million is H.R. 7128's certification floor for acts occurring in 2029 or later, up from $5 million, alongside a 30-day Federal Register notice, a 90-day determination period extendable to 365 days, and an irrevocable final determination (H.R. 7128 engrossed text).
$314.1 billion of premium sat in TRIP-eligible lines in 2024, on which terrorism take-up runs from about 60 to nearly 80 percent depending on the measure, and insurers collected $68.3 billion of terrorism premium from 2003 through 2023 (CRS IF11090, June 4, 2026, citing Treasury).
10.4 percent was the average Q4 2025 price cut on US standalone terrorism placements, in a market of 14 insurers and more than $2 billion of capacity that has not paid a market-moving loss in 25 years (WTW index via Claims Journal, March 4, 2026).
$53.3 billion is the 2025 industry aggregate retention; federal payments below it are recouped from policyholders at 140 percent, so for most conceivable events the backstop is financing, and S. 4395 moves that surcharge window to 2036 (CRS IF11090, June 4, 2026).

Two Bills, One Expiry Date, One Disputed Number

S. 4395 was introduced on April 27 by Senators McCormick, Smith, Tillis and Gallego and reached committee with 37 Senate cosponsors, according to the US Chamber's support letter (US Chamber of Commerce, September 17, 2026). Its operative text amends section 108(a) of the 2002 Act by striking "2027" and inserting "2034," then re-dates the mandatory recoupment subclauses in section 103(e)(7)(E)(i) so that each collection deadline moves seven years (S. 4395, GovInfo). Nothing touches the $200 million program trigger, the 20 percent deductible, the 80 percent federal share or the $5 million certification floor.

H.R. 7128, sponsored by Representative Mike Flood, cleared the House Financial Services Committee 51-2 in January and the floor on June 29. It reaches the same 2034 date and adds a certification regime: the per-carrier floor becomes $10 million for acts in 2029 or later, Treasury must publish a Federal Register notice within 30 days of opening a certification review, decide within 90 days with extensions to 365, and issue a final determination that "shall be irrevocable" (H.R. 7128 engrossed text; Real Estate Roundtable, June 2026).

Industry voices at the Senate vote spoke to the calendar rather than the floor. Sam Whitfield of APCIA called the vote "a clear message" that Congress recognises the need to act "before uncertainty creates unnecessary risks," and Jimi Grande of NAMIC noted that insurers "are already being forced to account for the possibility" that the program could lapse (Insurance Business, September 2026). A 12-month policy incepting in January 2027 already runs past the current expiry.

What the $5 Million Band Is Worth in a Market Cutting Prices 10.4 Percent

The site set out in July why the House floor is the repricing event: per-carrier losses between $5 million and $10 million stop qualifying for federal cost-sharing from 2029, and TRIA has certified one event in its history, so that band has no certification record to fit. What the Senate bill adds is a second scenario to price against, one in which the band stays covered. A carrier renewing 2027 terrorism endorsements this autumn is quoting into a program whose floor is either $5 million or $10 million from 2029, with no way to know which until conference.

Treasury's data bound the stakes. TRIP-eligible lines carried $314.1 billion of premium in 2024; terrorism premium over 2003 to 2023 totalled $68.3 billion, about $3.3 billion a year, which puts the average terrorism charge near one percent of eligible premium. Between 30 and 35 percent of terrorism coverage is bundled without a specific charge, and 74 percent of standalone terrorism policies written in 2024 were TRIP-eligible (CRS IF11090, June 4, 2026, citing Treasury).

Parameter	Current law (to 2027)	S. 4395 (Senate)	H.R. 7128 (House)
Program expiry	Dec 31, 2027	Dec 31, 2034	Dec 31, 2034
Per-carrier certification floor	$5 million	$5 million	$10 million from 2029
Certification clock	None in statute	None	30-day notice, 90 days to decide, up to 365
Program trigger / deductible / federal share	$200M / 20% of DEP / 80%	Unchanged	Unchanged
Mandatory recoupment deadlines	2024 and 2029	2031 and 2036	No change identified

The substitute market is cheaper than it was. WTW's index recorded a 10.4 percent average price cut on US standalone terrorism placements in the fourth quarter of 2025, with 14 insurers and more than 25 underwriters competing for the class and over $2 billion of limit available. "Terrorism insurance has been a profitable line of business for insurers. There has not been a market-moving loss in the U.S. in 25 years," said Peter Bransden of Willis (Claims Journal, March 4, 2026). A carrier that cannot know the 2029 floor can buy the $5 million band back from that market, and the price of doing so is falling.

The Backstop Is a Loan Below $53.3 Billion

The recoupment provision the Senate bill re-dates is the part of TRIA that pricing models most often leave out. Treasury sets an industry aggregate retention each year, about $53.3 billion for 2025, and where federal payments after a certified event fall below that retention, the government must recover 140 percent of the difference through surcharges on TRIP-eligible policies, with a 3 percent cap on the discretionary surcharge (CRS IF11090, June 4, 2026). For any event whose federal share sits under the retention, the 80 percent federal payment is financing that policyholders repay with a 40 percent premium.

A terrorism endorsement priced on the carrier's net retention alone therefore understates what its policyholders will pay after a mid-sized event, and the surcharge lands on every TRIP-eligible policy, terrorism take-up or not. S. 4395 does not change the 140 percent or the retention; it moves the mandatory collection deadlines out to 2031 and 2036, which lengthens the period over which a post-event surcharge can be spread and pushes the recoupment horizon past the program's own 2034 expiry.

The House bill's threshold and the Senate bill's dates can be reconciled in a single afternoon, and the trade groups expect passage this year. Until then the per-carrier floor for 2029 is two numbers, the recoupment window is two sets of dates, and the only market pricing either outcome is the one that just cut its rates by a tenth on 25 years without a loss.

Senate Banking Sends a Clean TRIA to 2034 While the House Bill Doubles the Certification Floor

Key Takeaways

Two Bills, One Expiry Date, One Disputed Number

What the $5 Million Band Is Worth in a Market Cutting Prices 10.4 Percent

The Backstop Is a Loan Below $53.3 Billion

Further Reading

Sources