WTW Logs First Large-Account Price Cut Since Late 2017 as Commercial Pricing Slows to 0.5%

Six quarters of WTW's carrier-reported commercial price index read 5.3%, 3.8%, 3.3%, 2.9%, 2.5% and 0.5%, and the last step, two full points between the first and second quarters of 2026, is the largest of the deceleration (WTW, September 2026). Inside that 0.5% aggregate, large-account business posted its first price decrease since the end of 2017, two quarters after brokers began reporting large-account premiums falling.

The two-quarter gap between the broker indices and the carrier index is where the actuarial content sits. Broker surveys report what a renewal costs. CLIPS reports what identical coverage costs, and that second number only crosses zero when rate itself moves.

Key Takeaways

• 0.5% aggregate price change in Q2 2026 against 2.5% in Q1 2026 and 3.8% in Q2 2025, reported by 43 carriers writing about 20% of the US commercial market, with commercial property the largest decrease and steeper than in the prior quarter.
• Down 2.1%, 2.7% and 3.7%: CIAB's broker survey had large-account premiums falling in Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 before WTW's like-for-like large-account price turned negative for the first time since Q4 2017.
• 1.038 divided by 1.005: the year-over-year rate change entering a commercial indication drops from 3.8% to 0.5%, which lifts the projected loss ratio about 3.3% in relative terms at unchanged loss trend, roughly two points on a 62% expected loss ratio.
• US property down 13%, US casualty up 7% in Marsh's Q2 index, so the 0.5% blends a falling property line against a casualty line still rising, and a property-heavy large-account book gets a negative on-level entry that a casualty-heavy peer does not.
• Below double digits for the first time since Q3 2023: WTW's Q1 2026 note on commercial auto shows the last hardening line converging on the aggregate, while D&O's return to a small increase matches Marsh's US D&O reading of +1% after a 3% decline.

The Six-Quarter Series Behind the 0.5%

WTW's Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey compares premiums on policies written in the quarter, new and renewal, against identical coverage written a year earlier. The second-quarter 2026 edition drew on 43 participating carriers representing about 20% of the US commercial market excluding state workers compensation funds (WTW, September 10, 2026). The aggregate came in at 0.5%, against 2.5% in the first quarter and 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025.

Compiled from WTW's own releases, the series runs 5.3% in Q1 2025 (WTW, June 2026), 3.8% in Q2 2025, 3.3% in Q3 2025 and 2.9% in Q4 2025 (Insurance Journal, June 2026), then 2.5% and 0.5% in the two quarters of 2026. Five of those steps are half a point or less. The sixth is two points.

Quarter	CLIPS aggregate price change	Step from prior quarter
Q1 2025	5.3%
Q2 2025	3.8%	-1.5 pts
Q3 2025	3.3%	-0.5 pts
Q4 2025	2.9%	-0.4 pts
Q1 2026	2.5%	-0.4 pts
Q2 2026	0.5%	-2.0 pts

Source: WTW CLIPS quarterly releases (Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 figures from the June 2026 release; Q3 and Q4 2025 as reported by Insurance Journal; Q2 2025 and Q2 2026 from the September 2026 release).

By line, commercial property recorded the largest decrease and a steeper one than in the first quarter. General and products liability kept moderating while staying positive, D&O returned to a small increase after several quarters of decreases, and specialty lines held a small increase. By account size, small commercial and mid-market moderated and large accounts turned negative. "Commercial insurance pricing is continuing to move toward a more balanced market, with overall price increases moderating across many lines," said Yi Jing, managing director in WTW's Insurance Consulting and Technology practice (WTW, September 2026).

The large-account line is the one that breaks a pattern. Every prior quarter of the deceleration left each account tier positive; the second quarter is the first since Q4 2017 in which participating carriers reported charging less for the same large-account coverage than a year earlier. That is 33 consecutive quarters of positive large-account entries, from Q1 2018 through Q1 2026, ending in one print.

Rate Versus Restructuring: Why the Carrier Index Turned Two Quarters Late

CIAB's broker survey put large-account premiums down 2.1% in Q4 2025, "the first decline since the last soft market in Q4 2017" (Risk & Insurance, reporting CIAB, February 2026), then down 2.7% in Q1 2026 and 3.7% in Q2 2026, with medium accounts down 1.9% and small accounts down 0.5% (CIAB via Insurance Journal, August 2026). Marsh's Q2 index has the US composite down 2%, US property down 13% and US casualty up 7% (Marsh, July 2026). Both broker series had large-account buyers paying less for three quarters before WTW's carriers reported the same thing.

The difference is the unit of measurement. CIAB asks brokers for the premium change on renewal, and a renewal premium can fall because the buyer raised its retention, bought a lower limit, dropped a layer or shed exposure, with the carrier's rate per unit of like coverage unchanged. CLIPS holds the coverage constant. A broker reading of -3.7% and a positive carrier reading in the same quarter are consistent if the decline arrived through structure; the two agree once the like-for-like rate itself moves, which is what the second quarter shows.

That distinction decides which series belongs in a rate indication. The on-level factor restating historical premium to current rate level wants like-for-like rate change, so CLIPS is the series the indication reads, and its Q2 print rewrites two entries. First, the year-over-year change on the aggregate index entering the trend-versus-rate arithmetic falls from 3.8% to 0.5%. At an unchanged loss trend the projected loss ratio rises by 1.038 divided by 1.005, about 3.3% in relative terms: a 62% expected loss ratio becomes about 64%.

Second, the large-account tier's rate-change history carries its first negative entry since Q4 2017. Since the start of 2018 every on-level factor applied to prior-period large-account premium has sat above 1.0, restating old premium upward and flattering every historical on-level loss ratio in the exhibit. A negative entry restates the most recent period downward instead. The site's read of the end of CIAB's 33-quarter streak in the first quarter flagged that reversal as pending on the carrier side; the September release delivers it for large accounts.

A Mix Number: Property Falls While Casualty Still Rises

The 0.5% is a weighted blend of lines moving in opposite directions, which limits what it can tell a single carrier. CIAB has commercial property premiums down 6.3% in the second quarter, with 75% of respondents reporting more property capacity, against umbrella up 5.3% for a 35th consecutive quarterly increase and commercial auto up 4.5% (CIAB, August 2026). Marsh's US property line is down 13% and its US casualty line excluding workers compensation up 11% (Insurance Journal, July 2026). WTW's own lines split the same way, with property the largest decrease and liability and specialty still positive.

A large-account carrier with a property-weighted book therefore carries a materially negative like-for-like entry into its on-level history, while a casualty-weighted peer writing the same tier still books a positive one. The 1.038-over-1.005 arithmetic above is an industry aggregate; the version a pricing actuary runs is line-specific, and for property it runs from a positive prior-year change into a decrease steeper than the first quarter's, so the trend-versus-rate gap on property widens faster than the aggregate implies. The site's coverage of the property give-back funding auto and umbrella traced the same cross-subsidy from the broker side.

The casualty side is converging too, from above. WTW's first-quarter release noted that commercial auto rate increases fell below double digits for the first time since the third quarter of 2023, with excess and umbrella still the highest-increase line but lower than the prior quarter (WTW, June 2026). D&O's return to a small increase matches Marsh's reading of US D&O at +1% after a 3% decline in Q1, so the one line reversing upward is doing so from a run of decreases; it has not joined the hardening lines (Insurance Business, September 2026).

The broker decline that preceded the carrier index by two quarters has moved into the exposure base. Higher retentions and lower limits leave no trace in a rate-change history, yet they change the expected loss per premium dollar through the deductible credits and increased-limits factors, and a large-account book restructured through 2025 and repriced in 2026 has both adjustments running at once. An on-level history that reads only the carrier index restates premium correctly and still books the wrong expected loss ratio for the year in which the restructuring happened.