Five Takeaways From Chubb CEO Evan Greenberg's 2025 Shareholder Letter

When the CEO of the world's largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer publishes his annual letter to shareholders, the entire insurance and actuarial community pays attention. Evan Greenberg's 2025 letter to Chubb shareholders, released in March 2026, is no exception. At 16 pages, it covers everything from record financial performance and AI-driven transformation to blunt criticism of managing general agents (MGAs) and a sobering take on U.S. litigation costs.

For actuaries, the letter is far more than a corporate communication exercise. It offers a window into how the industry's largest risk-taking enterprise views the current pricing cycle, loss reserve adequacy, technology adoption, and the macroeconomic forces shaping insurance for years to come. From tracking shareholder letters across the industry over the past several years, Greenberg's annual letters consistently stand out for their candor, strategic depth, and willingness to address controversial topics head-on.

Here are the five most consequential themes for actuarial professionals and insurance industry participants.

1. Record Financial Performance Reinforces Underwriting Discipline

Chubb's 2025 numbers are remarkable by any standard. The company reported core operating income of nearly $10 billion, an 8.9% increase over 2024 and a 55% increase over the prior three years. On a per-share basis, operating earnings grew 10.8% for the year and more than 63% over three years.

The combined ratio tells the underwriting story most clearly. Chubb posted a published combined ratio of 85.7% in 2025, representing a profit margin of 14.3 percentage points and a record result for the company. On a current accident year basis excluding catastrophe losses, the combined ratio hit 81.9%, also a record low. For context, Chubb's combined ratio has outperformed the average of its peer group (which includes AIG, Allstate, CNA, Hartford, Liberty Mutual, and Travelers) by roughly seven percentage points across 3-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year measurement periods.

These results were achieved despite $2.9 billion in pre-tax catastrophe losses, driven heavily by the California wildfires early in the year. Industry-wide insured catastrophe losses approached $129 billion in 2025, according to Greenberg's letter.

2. AI and Technology Are Reshaping Chubb's Workforce and Operations

Greenberg's most forward-looking section addresses what he calls the "accelerating impact of technological change." He describes Chubb's investments in AI, data analytics, and process reengineering as reaching an inflection point, and the language is notably direct about what this means for employment.

The letter states plainly that Chubb plans to "reduce our global employee population significantly." Greenberg frames this reduction as primarily achievable through natural attrition, noting the company's annual staff turnover rate. But he also acknowledges the transformation requires new skills in certain areas, while others will see roles diminished or eliminated entirely.

In Greenberg's view, the real transformation comes from combining AI (both algorithmic and large language models) with foundational technology, data infrastructure, and deep process reengineering. He emphasizes that this is not a plug-and-play exercise: it requires engineering talent working closely with business professionals who understand how operations actually function, and it takes sustained leadership skilled in genuine business transformation.

Chubb's digital distribution arm, Chubb Digital, provides a concrete example. That business grew 27% to $1.4 billion in premium in 2025 while generating meaningful underwriting profit. The company's "Chubb Studio" platform connects with over 250 digital partners globally, including fintech companies, banks, and e-commerce platforms for embedded insurance offerings.

3. A Pointed Warning About MGAs and the Insurance Distribution Ecosystem

Perhaps the most provocative section of Greenberg's letter targets managing general agents (MGAs) and the broader insurance intermediation ecosystem. His criticism is sharp and specific.

Greenberg describes a system where risk passes through "four or five layers of intermediaries, who all take commissions before the risk finally gets to the ultimate risk taker." He characterizes MGAs as agents with underwriting authority, noting what he views as an inherent conflict of interest. He points out that most MGAs earn commissions based on volume rather than underwriting profit, creating incentive structures that "amplify the supply cycle" and contribute to market softening.

The letter singles out the practice of using "front" insurance companies that take on counterparty risk for a fee and pass the actual risk through to ultimate risk takers via additional brokers and layers of commission. Greenberg states bluntly that insurers who outsource underwriting while retaining risk "do so at their peril."

He acknowledges exceptions for specialist MGAs that earn income as a share of underwriting profit, but describes them as "a relatively small percentage of this ecosystem." His overall assessment: the proliferation of MGAs during the recent hard market, combined with reinsurer capital seeking deployment, creates conditions he has seen before, and "it doesn't end well."

4. U.S. Litigation Costs Are a Growing Affordability Crisis

Greenberg dedicates considerable space to what he calls a growing "affordability problem" in the United States, driven substantially by the rising cost of litigation. His framing positions the U.S. legal system as "an unnecessary tax on society" that costs households an average of $4,000 annually and represents more than 2% of GDP.

The specific data points are striking. Greenberg reports that the frequency and cost of litigation for businesses is raising liability insurance costs by approximately 7% to 9% per year, "multiples of the inflation rate." Employment practices liability (EPL) lawsuits are increasing at double-digit rates nationally. He notes that corporate return-to-work policies have become grounds for personal injury claims based on the theory that such policies cause compensable mental stress.

Greenberg also addresses the litigation finance industry, describing private equity investors, hedge funds, and foreign capital that fund lawsuits in exchange for a share of awards. He observes that this capital has "turned courtroom payouts into a speculative asset class." The letter positions these trends as structurally inflationary for insurance costs and ultimately harmful to policyholders, since "as claims mount and losses build, claims end up paid late or never at all."

On the reform front, Greenberg points to recent tort reform laws in Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, and Louisiana as making a difference. Several states have enacted or are considering disclosure requirements for litigation financing at trial. At the federal level, legislative efforts are underway to address litigation finance nationally, though Greenberg characterizes the progress as "modest relative to the rising cost of excessive litigation."

5. The P&C Market Cycle Is Turning, But the Picture Is Nuanced

Greenberg's assessment of the current P&C pricing environment is characteristically measured. He describes the commercial market as "softening, but it isn't binary; rather, it is textured and nuanced." Pricing remains stronger in U.S. casualty-related classes, while large account and upper-middle-market property (both admitted and E&S) has turned soft.

Several structural factors are driving the shift. Reinsurers entered 2026 with significant surplus capital, especially after two years without major hurricane losses. Rather than returning that capital to shareholders, "most are now hungry to put it to work in pursuit of growth," Greenberg notes. This reinsurance capital, combined with the MGA proliferation discussed above, is expanding supply and compressing pricing.

Despite the softening trend, Greenberg emphasizes that a "significant majority" of Chubb's businesses are less or not exposed to the pricing cycle and present good growth opportunities. The company's diversification across geographies (54 countries), business lines (commercial, consumer, life, A&H), and distribution channels provides a buffer against any single market segment's cyclical pressure.

The letter also reveals important details about Chubb's investment portfolio, which has become a major earnings driver. Total invested assets grew from $66 billion a decade ago to $169 billion in 2025, with adjusted net investment income reaching nearly $7 billion for the year, growing at a compound annual rate exceeding 12% over the past decade. Investment income now represents more than half of Chubb's earnings.

Broader Context: What the Letter Signals for the Industry

Beyond the five core takeaways, several additional themes in Greenberg's letter deserve attention from actuarial professionals.

Reserve Adequacy

Greenberg states that Chubb's $68 billion in loss reserves are "once again as strong as I have seen them." This is a notable statement from a CEO who has led the company through multiple cycles and is generally conservative in his public assessments. For the broader industry, the question of reserve adequacy remains open, particularly as social inflation and evolving litigation patterns challenge historical development assumptions.

Asia as a Growth Engine

Chubb's Asian operations produced $13.2 billion in total premiums plus deposits in 2025, with consumer P&C and life premiums growing nearly 19% and 16%, respectively. The life insurance business in Asia tripled its income over five years. For actuaries considering international career opportunities or studying global insurance markets, the growth trajectory in Asia is worth noting.

Macroeconomic Caution

Despite his optimism about Chubb's prospects, Greenberg issues pointed warnings about U.S. fiscal policy, noting federal budget deficits near $2 trillion (6% of GDP) and total outstanding debt at four times 2007 levels. He warns that inflationary pressures from tax cut stimulus, deficit spending, tariff impacts, and rising electricity demand from AI infrastructure create real risks. For actuaries modeling long-term economic scenarios for insurance pricing or pension valuations, these macroeconomic observations from a major insurance CEO add valuable perspective.

Conclusion

Greenberg's 2025 shareholder letter is one of the most information-dense CEO communications in the insurance industry. For actuaries, it provides primary-source insight into how the world's largest P&C insurer views the interplay of underwriting discipline, technological transformation, market cycles, and systemic risks like litigation inflation.

The letter also underscores a fundamental reality of the modern insurance industry: the companies that invest in data, analytics, and AI while maintaining underwriting discipline are pulling away from competitors. For actuarial professionals, this reinforces the value of the profession's core competencies in risk quantification and financial modeling, while also demanding continuous adaptation to new tools, new data sources, and new ways of working.

Whether you are a reserving actuary concerned about social inflation trends, a pricing actuary navigating a nuanced market cycle, or an aspiring actuary studying for exams, Chubb's shareholder letter offers a masterclass in how a leading insurer thinks about risk, opportunity, and the long game.