Exam FM — Cash-Flow Analysis (NPV / IRR / Yield) Practice Flashcards
Thirty original SOA-style multiple-choice problems on cash-flow analysis: NPV and IRR, uniqueness of the yield, dollar- vs time-weighted returns, reinvestment, the portfolio and investment-year methods, spot and forward rates, and replicating (no-arbitrage) cash flows, each with a fully worked solution.
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- NPV & IRRA project requires an outlay of $\$25{,}000$ today and returns $\$9{,}000$ at the end of each of the next four years. Calculate the net present value at an annual effective interest rate of $7\%$. (A) $\$5{,}485$ (B) $\$6{,}120$ (C) $\$8{,}680$ (D) $\$11{,}000$ (E) $\$30{,}485$**Answer: (A).** The four returns form a level annuity-immediate. With $i=0.07$, $a_{\overline{4|}}=\dfrac{1-1.07^{-4}}{0.07}=\dfrac{1-0.762895}{0.07}\approx 3.387211.$ Present value of inflows: $9000\times 3.387211\approx 30{,}484.90.$ $\mathrm{NPV}=30{,}484.90-25{,}000\approx \mathbf{\$5{,}485}.$ (Option (E) forgets to subtract the cost; (D) is the undiscounted total $36{,}000-25{,}000$.)
- NPV & IRRAn investment of $\$12{,}000$ produces a single payment of $\$15{,}972$ at the end of three years and nothing else. Calculate the annual effective internal rate of return. (A) $9.0\%$ (B) $9.8\%$ (C) $10.0\%$ (D) $11.1\%$ (E) $33.1\%$**Answer: (C).** Solve $12{,}000(1+i)^{3}=15{,}972$, so $(1+i)^{3}=\dfrac{15{,}972}{12{,}000}=1.331.$ $1+i=1.331^{1/3}=1.10000$, giving $i=\mathbf{10.0\%}.$ (Option (E) is the total three-year return $33.1\%$ left un-annualized; (D) divides that total by 3 instead of taking the cube root.)
- NPV & IRRA company is evaluating a project with these cash flows: an outflow of $\$5{,}000$ at $t=0$, an inflow of $\$2{,}500$ at $t=1$, and an inflow of $\$3{,}300$ at $t=2$. Calculate the internal rate of return. (A) $8.0\%$ (B) $9.0\%$ (C) $10.0\%$ (D) $12.0\%$ (E) $16.0\%$**Answer: (C).** Let $v=(1+i)^{-1}$. The equation of value is $5000=2500v+3300v^{2}$, i.e. $3300v^{2}+2500v-5000=0.$ $v=\dfrac{-2500+\sqrt{2500^{2}+4(3300)(5000)}}{2(3300)}=\dfrac{-2500+\sqrt{6{,}250{,}000+66{,}000{,}000}}{6600}=\dfrac{-2500+\sqrt{72{,}250{,}000}}{6600}.$ $\sqrt{72{,}250{,}000}=8500$, so $v=\dfrac{6000}{6600}=0.909091$ and $1+i=\dfrac{1}{0.909091}=1.10.$ Thus $i=\mathbf{10.0\%}.$ Check: $2500/1.1+3300/1.21=2272.73+2727.27=5000.$ (Option (E) comes from solving the quadratic with a sign error on the linear term.)
- NPV & IRRAt an annual effective rate of $6\%$, a project's net present value is $\$420$; at $9\%$ its net present value is $-\$180$. Using linear interpolation, estimate the internal rate of return. (A) $6.9\%$ (B) $7.4\%$ (C) $7.9\%$ (D) $8.1\%$ (E) $8.6\%$**Answer: (D).** Linear interpolation for the rate at which NPV crosses zero: $i^{*}\approx 6\%+(9\%-6\%)\cdot\dfrac{420}{420-(-180)}=6\%+3\%\cdot\dfrac{420}{600}.$ $\dfrac{420}{600}=0.70$, so $i^{*}\approx 6\%+3\%(0.70)=6\%+2.1\%=\mathbf{8.1\%}.$ (Option (A) uses the wrong fraction $180/600$; the IRR sits closer to $9\%$ because the NPV magnitude at $6\%$ is the larger of the two.)
- NPV & IRRA project has cash flows $-\$8{,}000$ at $t=0$, $-\$3{,}000$ at $t=1$, and $+\$13{,}000$ at $t=2$. Calculate the net present value at an annual effective rate of $10\%$, and state whether the internal rate of return is above or below $10\%$. (A) $-\$120$; IRR below $10\%$ (B) $\$17$; IRR just below $10\%$ (C) $\$17$; IRR just above $10\%$ (D) $\$120$; IRR above $10\%$ (E) $\$1{,}273$; IRR above $10\%$**Answer: (C).** At $i=0.10$: $\mathrm{NPV}=-8000-\dfrac{3000}{1.10}+\dfrac{13000}{1.10^{2}}=-8000-2727.27+\dfrac{13000}{1.21}.$ $\dfrac{13000}{1.21}=10743.80,$ so $\mathrm{NPV}=-8000-2727.27+10743.80\approx \mathbf{\$16.53}\approx \$17.$ The cash flows have a single sign change ($-,-,+$), so the IRR is unique and NPV is a decreasing function of $i$. Because $\mathrm{NPV}(10\%)>0$, the curve crosses zero at a rate **above** $10\%$. Hence the IRR is just above $10\%$. (Option (B) gets the NPV right but the IRR direction backward — positive NPV at $10\%$ implies the yield exceeds $10\%$.)
- Uniqueness of IRRTwo mutually exclusive projects each cost $\$10{,}000$ today. Project X returns $\$11{,}600$ at $t=1$. Project Y returns $\$13{,}300$ at $t=2$. The firm's cost of capital is $8\%$. Determine which project the NPV rule selects and which the IRR rule selects. (A) NPV picks X; IRR picks X (B) NPV picks X; IRR picks Y (C) NPV picks Y; IRR picks X (D) NPV picks Y; IRR picks Y (E) Both rules are indifferent**Answer: (C).** IRRs: Project X gives $\dfrac{11{,}600}{10{,}000}-1=16.0\%.$ Project Y gives $\left(\dfrac{13{,}300}{10{,}000}\right)^{1/2}-1=\sqrt{1.33}-1\approx 15.33\%.$ So **IRR ranks X above Y**. NPVs at $8\%$: $\mathrm{NPV}_X=\dfrac{11{,}600}{1.08}-10{,}000=10{,}740.74-10{,}000=740.74.$ $\mathrm{NPV}_Y=\dfrac{13{,}300}{1.08^{2}}-10{,}000=\dfrac{13{,}300}{1.1664}-10{,}000=11{,}402.61-10{,}000=1{,}402.61.$ So **NPV ranks Y above X**. The rules conflict because IRR ignores the longer horizon and the scale of value created. At an $8\%$ hurdle the correct choice is the higher-NPV project, Y. Thus NPV picks Y while IRR picks X.
- Uniqueness of IRRA cash-flow stream is $-\$1{,}000$ at $t=0$, $+\$2{,}350$ at $t=1$, and $-\$1{,}365$ at $t=2$. Both internal rates of return are real and positive. Determine the two yield rates. (A) $5\%$ and $30\%$ (B) $5\%$ and $40\%$ (C) $10\%$ and $30\%$ (D) $10\%$ and $35\%$ (E) $15\%$ and $40\%$**Answer: (A).** With $v=(1+i)^{-1}$, set NPV to zero: $-1000+2350v-1365v^{2}=0,$ i.e. $1365v^{2}-2350v+1000=0.$ $v=\dfrac{2350\pm\sqrt{2350^{2}-4(1365)(1000)}}{2(1365)}=\dfrac{2350\pm\sqrt{5{,}522{,}500-5{,}460{,}000}}{2730}=\dfrac{2350\pm\sqrt{62{,}500}}{2730}.$ $\sqrt{62{,}500}=250$, so $v=\dfrac{2350\pm 250}{2730}.$ $v=\dfrac{2600}{2730}=0.952381\Rightarrow 1+i=1.05\Rightarrow i=5\%.$ $v=\dfrac{2100}{2730}=0.769231\Rightarrow 1+i=1.30\Rightarrow i=30\%.$ The two sign changes produce two legitimate yields, $\mathbf{5\%}$ and $\mathbf{30\%}$, so the IRR alone is ambiguous here.
- Uniqueness of IRRWhich one of the following cash-flow sequences is **guaranteed** by the single-sign-change condition to have a unique positive internal rate of return? (A) $-100,\ +250,\ -160$ (B) $+100,\ -250,\ +160$ (C) $-100,\ -50,\ +200$ (D) $-100,\ +60,\ -30,\ +90$ (E) $+50,\ -200,\ +50,\ +160$**Answer: (C).** The sufficient condition for a unique positive IRR is exactly one sign change in the ordered cash-flow sequence (all outflows before all inflows, or vice versa). - (A) $-,+,-$: two sign changes. - (B) $+,-,+$: two sign changes. - (C) $-,-,+$: **one** sign change — guaranteed unique IRR. - (D) $-,+,-,+$: three sign changes. - (E) $+,-,+,+$: two sign changes. Only sequence (C) has a single sign change, so it is the only one guaranteed a unique positive yield.